29 May 22' Cryptocurrency Outlook

Introduction

This article will go over Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Algorand (ALGO), Cosmos (ATOM), Terra Classic (LUNC), & Terra (LUNA).

BTC & ETH are on different paths than the others in my opinion (IMO). They forecast large corrections, while the rest forecast Wave 3 growth periods.

I included several screenshots to aid in your conceptualization of my interpretations. If you need to make them larger right-click on one and select "Open image in new tab." You can freely zoom in and out on the original size of the picture; not the reduced size the article puts out. Happy reading!

Bitcoin (BTC)

Currently I am tracking an Intermediate Wave 4 of a Primary Wave 4. This should end in the price range of $27k - $31.7k. Those estimates are based off a 14.6 - 50% Logarithmic Fibonacci Ratio (LFR) using the Intermediate Wave 2 & 3. The bottom of the Primary Wave 4 is between $22.4k - $24.4k using a 123.6 - 161.8% retracement off the Intermediate Wave 3 & 4. I've seen many indications that ~ $23k is likely the bottom of the Primary Wave 4.

May 2022 to Present
C Leg of Primary Wave 4
BTC's Primary Wave 4 so far

This is all part of a larger Super Cycle Wave 1 that is coming to a close. We just need to finish off this incoming rally (Primary Wave 5). My current price estimates for the top (not including extensions) are between $89k - $136k. This is off the assumption I believe the Primary Wave 4 will end IVO $23k and then using a 123.6 - 161.8% retracement off the Primary Wave 3 & 4.

BTC Price Estimates of the Primary Wave 4 & 5
BTC Super Cycle Wave 1 so far

Two indicators I use other than BTC's actual price or volume are the $DXY and Bollinger Bands. The $DXY has finally started correcting downward and the bands are contracting. Historically the $DXY and BTC have inverse relations to one another. When the bands contract that signals either a dump or pump in the market. In this case I expect a dump.

BTC Bollinger Band Width Indicator
$DXY v BTC since 2011

If BTC reaches _ price expect a fallout to between _ prices:

  • $89.5k | $0.48 - $11.3k ($73.4)
  • $100k | $0.49 - $12.4k ($77.5)
  • $110k | $0.49 - $13.4k ($81.3)
  • $120k | $0.5 - $14.4k ($84.9)
  • $130k | $0.51 - $15.5k ($88.4)
  • $136k | $0.51 - $16k ($90.4)

This is based off a true low of $0.06 and high given by each potential one above. Then taking the LFRs off them. Using the 14.6% retracement as the smallest correction and 85.4% as the biggest correction, with a typical W2 50% in parentheses. I know these prices are scary. However, you must remember that a big, bad recession is likely coming soon so it actually makes sense in the long run. In my opinion since institutional money is now in BTC the crash will probably take it to $10k - $16k.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum is closely following Bitcoin, as usual. Although, its corrective structure is different. ETH seems to be slightly ahead of BTC's correction. ETH is beginning its descent already, while BTC is still trading sideways.

Current price estimates for the small relief rally: $1.8k ± $80.
Estimates for the Primary Wave 4 bottom: $1.45k - $1.6k. The 323.6% LFR off the Intermediate Wave 1 & 2 gives $1.53k (basically in the middle of the boundaries).

End of Ethereum's Primary Wave 4

Cardano (ADA)

Cardano is mimicking the perfect ABCDE Intermediate Wave 4 that BTC is producing as well. The E portion of the Intermediate Wave 4 seems to be all that's remaining. I drew up a couple Cycle Wave 2 price bottom estimates:

  • 1:1 Zig Zag - $0.31
  • 1.236 - 1.618 using the IW4 Retracement: $0.3 - $0.35

Given ADA is in what I believe to be a Zig Zag (or at least a WxY) the 1:1 estimate is what I'm sticking to (right now) for the Cycle Wave 2 bottom.

One very important thing that you should know is that Cardano, unlike BTC & ETH, will be entering into a Wave 3 era of growth, contrary the crash we expect for them.

C Portion of Cardano's Zig Zag

Algorand (ALGO)

Algorand is on the same track as Cardano: on its way to a Cycle Wave 3.

Currently in an Intermediate Wave 4 that should end between $0.38 - $0.52. I think it will end at the 38.2% LFR near $0.46.

The Cycle Wave 2 bottom is expected between the 61.8% - 85.4% LFR ($0.14 - $0.33).

The Cycle Wave 3 LFR estimates (off the lowest Cycle Wave 2 price targets) still give quite a bullish forecast IMO:

  • 100% - $3.52 ~ $3.5
  • 123.6% - $7.437 ~ $7.5
  • 161.8% - $24.875 ~ $25

So, just like with my ADA projections, a 10x minimum growth is still on the table.

C Portion of ALGO's Cycle Wave 2
ALGO's Cycle Wave 2 so far

Cosmos (ATOM)

Just like Cardano, it's in a Wave 2 correction. As I track it ATOM is in a WxY Correction (Zig Zag, Triangle, Zig Zag). As you'll see I plotted a Wyckoff Accumulation near a prior, smaller Wave 4 as an added bit of Technical Analysis.

I haven't changed the symbols on Trading View at the moment to represent their appropriate wave degrees as you can obviously see. This is because I can be very detailed on this altcoin, unlike many others, so I wanted to include it.

I'm looking for a bottom IVO $1.9 - $10.72.

If the current Zig Zag is 1:1 then $3 is where it will bottom. This is pretty close to the 76.4% LFR, which is typical for a Wave 2. This is my optimal buy-in TBH.

To conclude, the current Wave Degree is a cycle (like Cardano).

ATOM Price Data so far
ATOM's Corrective Cycle Wave 2 Estimates

Terra (LUNA)

The new, revived Terra is a bit hard to isolate. There are a variety of exchanges who offer it, but none seem to have exactly the same price. Do Kwon (co-founder of Terra) seemed really happy with Kucoin listing it so I used that one (LUNA:USDT). Once Trading View offers what Kraken lists as LUNA2 I'll switch to that since that's where my LUNA is.

From the bottom of the immediate sell-off that occurred (took it from $30 to $4 on Kraken in 5 hours time) we seem to be recovering impulsively. I'll have to wait and see for more price data, but this is the best I can offer at the moment.

LUNA since the bottom around $4

Terra Classic (LUNC)

I'm sort of at a loss for this altcoin. This coin went from basically nothing to $0.0008 on Kraken then back down to almost where it crashed at ~ $0.00008. I'll have to wait and see what this coin does before I put out anything on here.

References

  1. https://twitter.com/MatthewHyland_/status/1530954541147070465
  2. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1529272242399502336
  3. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530943982687092737
  4. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530946499764535298
  5. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530953522950426627
  6. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530928246660923392
  7. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530918722591932416
  8. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530919850431893511
  9. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530572041849651201
  10. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530553002129510400
  11. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1530047644508114945
  12. https://twitter.com/c_d_chester/status/1529485561588858883

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