In roughly a year I will be stationed at Fort Carson. Fort Carson houses the WCAP and can be found at 1450 Magrath Ave, Fort Carson, CO 80902.1Source The WCAP holds high standards, comparable to Olympic Standards. The events I'm interested in being the 200m and 400m, but 400m primarily. WCAP sets the standards at 20.5 (821 men in history at or faster) and 45.4 seconds (620 men in history at or faster).2These "better than" stats are based on data available on 11 Mar 21 from World Athletics (formerly the IAAF), the international athletics governing body.
I definitely have a couple of years of training ahead of me before I get to the point that I meet the standards, but I think I can get there. My best in high school (HS) "on record" were 52.12 sec3See Page 3 Event 30 here. for the 400m and 23.49 sec4See Page 5 Event 63 here. for the 200m (22.6 200m relay split Source), so I believe I have some potential. I should note that I had neglected proper nutrition in HS, so I probably could've done much better like a 50 and 22 respectively.
However, I need to also note that I'm currently 50 to 60lb. heavier than I was in HS. I was a twig in HS at 130 to 140lb. and now in the Army I have put on a decent amount of muscle in my upper body and overall fat from bad nutrition too. So, I expect to have to start from a ways back. As you'll see below the highest score I achieve on Day 1 (16 March 2021) using my standards, except the Army's 2mi standard, is 2. However, I expect my race weight to be roughly 150 to 155 lb. If you are wondering how I got 150 to 155 lb. Here's how:
(1) 191*(1-0.232)=146.688 (Current LBM)
(2) 146.688*0.9=132.0192 (LBM retention at 90%)
(3) 132.0192/(1-0.12)≈150 (12% BF with 90% LBM retention)
With that said and my current weight of 191lb. I expect the weight loss portion to contribute a good amount. Going off what Jack Daniel uses to estimate how weight change affects race time5(NW/OW)^0.83 I should expect a 15.9 to 18.2% improvement.
Therefore, the remainder of this article will summarize my progress to reach or surpass those standards and how I will score my progress.
I will score my 100m progress off of this Sextic Polynomial I created with a score of 0 (13 sec) to 100 (9.5 sec).
I will score my 200m progress off of this Sextic Polynomial I created with a score of 0 (28 sec) to 100 (19 sec).
I will score my 400m progress off of this Sextic Polynomial I created with a score of 0 (60 sec) to 100 (43 sec).
I will score my 800m progress off of this Sextic Polynomial I created with a score of 0 (3:30.1) to 100 (1:40.91).
I will score my 1600m progress off of this Exponential I created with a score of 0 (9:15) to 100 (4:00).
I will score my 3200m progress off of the 1 Oct 2019 ACFT 2MR Army standards with a score of 0 (22:48) to 100 (13:30).
VDOT values will be assigned to the 800m, 1600m, and 3200m according to "Oxygen Power: Performance Tables for Distance Runners" by Jack Daniels and used to estimate some performances in the other events.6The Run S.M.A.R.T. Calculator will be used for estimating the 1600m.
Approximations for the 100m, 200m, and 400m will be drawn from my article, Race Predictors: Master List, and noted using a footnote.
Legend
| NT | Done not using a track. |
| IT | Done using an indoor 200m track. |
| T | Done using a 400m track. |
| NS | Done not using spikes. |
| S | Done using spikes. |
| J | Done with injury. |
| H | Done with no injury. |
| L | Wind legal time. |
| NL | Not a wind legal time. |
| NW | No wind data. |
| RS | A split taken from a relay. |
| ET | Electronically timed. |
| HT | Hand timed. |
| ST | Time recorded via a smartwatch. |
Chronology of Progress
100m
200m
| Date | Time | Notes |
| 16 Mar 21 | 30.75 | 191lb. | 23.21% BF | Score: 0 NT, NS, J (left ankle), NW, HT |
400m
| Date | Time | Notes |
| 16 Mar 21 | 1:17.88 | 191lb. | 23.21% BF | Score: 0 NT, NS, J (left ankle), NW, HT |
800m
| Date | Time | Notes |
| 19 Nov 20 | ~ 4:10.36 | 190lb. | 23.1% BF Score: 0 | VDOT: 30.7 |
| 19 Mar 21 | ~ 3:48.6 | 188.5lb. | 23.56% BF Score: 0 | VDOT: 34.05 |
1600m
| Date | Time | Notes |
| 19 Nov 20 | ~ 8:56 | 190lb. | 23.1% BF Score: 2 | VDOT: 30.7 |
| 19 Mar 21 | 8:09.4 | 188.5lb. | 23.56% BF NT, NS, J (left ankle), NW, ST8Garmin Forerunner 245 Score: 9.7 | VDOT: 34.05 |
3200m
| Date | Time | Notes |
| 19 Nov 20 | 18:49.8 | 190lb. | 23.1% BF NT, NS, H, NW, ST9Garmin Forerunner 245 Score: 65 | VDOT: 30.7 |
| 19 Mar 21 | ~ 17:15.4 | 188.5lb. | 23.56% BF Score: 74 | VDOT: 34.05 |
Goals With Completion DTG
100m
| 15 | |
| 14 | |
| 13 | |
| 12.5 | |
| 12 | |
| 11.8 | |
| 11.5 | |
| 11.3 | |
| 11 | |
| 10.9 | |
| 10.8 | |
| 10.7 | |
| 10.6 | |
| 10.5 | |
| 10.4 | |
| 10.3 | |
| 10.2 | |
| 10.1 | |
| 10 | |
| 9.9 | |
| 9.8 |
200m
| 28 | |
| 27 | |
| 25 | |
| 24 | |
| 23.5 | |
| 23 | |
| 22.5 | |
| 22 | |
| 21.5 | |
| 21 | |
| 20.8 | |
| 20.7 | |
| 20.6 | |
| 20.5 | |
| 20.4 | |
| 20.3 | |
| 20.2 | |
| 20.1 | |
| 20 | |
| 19.9 | |
| 19.8 |
400m
| 75 | |
| 70 | |
| 65 | |
| 60 | |
| 59 | |
| 58 | |
| 57 | |
| 56 | |
| 55 | |
| 54 | |
| 53 | |
| 52 | |
| 51 | |
| 50 | |
| 49 | |
| 48 | |
| 47 | |
| 46 | |
| 45 | |
| 44.8 | |
| 44.6 | |
| 44.5 | |
| 44.4 | |
| 44.3 | |
| 44.2 | |
| 44.1 | |
| 44 |
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